Determine your safe withdrawal rate and see if your portfolio can support your lifestyle.
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The "Safe Withdrawal Rate" is the percentage of your portfolio you withdraw in the first year of retirement. In subsequent years, you adjust that dollar amount for inflation. The goal is to keep this rate low enough that your money grows faster than you spend it.
This rule comes from the "Trinity Study," which looked at stock market history. It found that a portfolio of 50% stocks and 50% bonds survived for 30 years in 95% of historical scenarios if the withdrawal rate was 4%.
Excellent for early retirement. Your portfolio should last 50+ years with high confidence.
Standard recommendation. Suitable for 30-year retirements with good success rates.
Higher chance of running out of money during market downturns. Consider saving more.
Very high risk of portfolio depletion. You likely need more savings before retiring.
If you are retiring in your 30s or 40s, you need your money to last longer than 30 years. Many in the FIRE community prefer a 3.5% or 3.25% withdrawal rate to add an extra layer of safety against long recessions and extended retirement periods.
A lower withdrawal rate means you'll need to save more (28x or 33x your annual expenses instead of 25x), but it significantly increases the likelihood your portfolio will last your entire lifetime.