Sun Tzu's Art of War Ch. 13: Use of Spies in the Stock Market

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Information asymmetry, alternative data, and ignoring noise.

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Sun Tzu's Art of War Chapter 13: Use of Spies

"What enables the wise sovereign and the good general to strike and conquer, and achieve things beyond the reach of ordinary men, is foreknowledge." — Sun Tzu

The Military Context

In the final chapter, Sun Tzu reveals the ultimate secret to winning wars: Foreknowledge (Information Asymmetry). He argues that spending millions on a war but being too cheap to pay spies for information is the height of stupidity. Foreknowledge cannot be guessed from spirits or analogies; it must be obtained from real humans who know the enemy's secrets.

The Wall Street Translation

Wall Street hedge funds spend billions on "spies" in the form of Alternative Data (satellite imagery, credit card flows) to achieve Foreknowledge. As a retail trader, you are at a massive informational disadvantage. By the time a "bullish" news article reaches your screen, the smart money has already bought and is looking to sell to you. Your only reliable "spy" is the Stock Chart. Price and Volume do not lie, because billions of dollars cannot enter or exit a stock without leaving footprints on the chart.

Actionable Trading Rules

  1. Price is Your Ultimate Spy: Ignore the financial news networks. They are often used as "double agents" to create liquidity for institutions to exit. If the news is fantastic but the stock is heavily selling off on high volume, trust the volume.
  2. Track Insider Buying: SEC filings (Form 4) show when corporate insiders buy their own stock. Insiders sell for many reasons, but they only buy for one reason: they think the stock is going up.
  3. Invest in Your Intelligence: Sun Tzu mocked generals who wouldn't pay for spies. In trading, do not refuse to pay $30/month for professional charting software or data feeds if you are trading thousands of dollars. You must have the best possible information to survive.